Salmon update June 2026

Sockeye returns to the Fraser River in 2025 were the best for that cycle of salmon since 1987 and the abundance was nearly three times the median prediction. Those salmon were the first to go to sea without having to pass through salmon farm effluent in the Discovery Islands and Broughton. This year is the Adams River run—the dominant run of sockeye that has historically numbered in the tens of millions. Its abundance has been plummeting since 2010: the red line in the graph below traces its descent. What will this year bring? 

The Department of Fisheries’ Preliminary Outlook for 2026 is a bit of a mixed bag. Ocean conditions are predicted to be only moderate, with the probable advent of an El Nino, after years of La Nina conditions. El Nino years generally see warmer coastal waters and less food. It’s most likely that temperatures in the river will be higher than ideal and water flow lower. In less-than-ideal conditions, our expectations for recovery of Fraser sockeye abundance are tempered; and it will be difficult to see whether or not the removal of salmon farms has had an influence on overall abundance. 

The Outlook examines numerous management units or population groups within the Fraser and two things are striking about these analyses: first, there’s the fact that predictions vary from poor to above-average, unit by unit. Next, and truly infuriating, is the number of management units for which reliable data are not available. Stock assessment has been a priority on paper for DFO for over a decade and even here, in the most closely studied of rivers, we have data deficiencies. Looking at The Outlook for all species, for the whole Province, the picture is even grimmer: there are entire regions for which no data is available. 

Despite renewed funding announced for the Pacific Salmon Strategy Initiative, we have just learned that monitoring contracts have been cut back by as much as two-thirds and fuel budgets reduced despite increasing costs. We have requested, through the Marine Conservation Caucus, an emergency meeting with DFO to discuss just how they intend improving fisheries stock assessment and fisheries monitoring in the face of such restrictions.